The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that clean energy technologies are not decarbonizing global energy systems fast enough to stay on track to meet Paris Agreement goals (limiting warming to a 2°C-compatible trajectory in 2025), but the world can still decarbonize in time – if governments maintain strong policy signals.
IEA’s annual Tracking Clean Energy Progress report highlights technologies that are on track for meeting the 2° goals, those that are improving but need more effort, and those that are wholly off-track. Their assessment covers both technology development with policy for deployment: In practice, it is more useful to separate these two, as expensive or unproven technologies cannot be deployed, and thus require serious R&D, while many technologies that are already cost-effective are instead hitting institutional obstacles. Still, the gist is clear.
Because time is of the essence in abating climate change, and starting as soon as possible makes subsequent action cheaper and easier, it is important to take technologies that are ready for, or in, prime time, and really accelerate them. So IEA’s technological roadmap can help show where governments should double down on the technologies that can help secure a safe climate future at the least cost.
Many Core Clean Energy Technologies Are On Track
IEA’s report finds only 3 of 26 technologies are on track to reach a sustainable energy transition: onshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EVs), and energy storage. These technologies are all rapidly scaling up as their costs decline, and are fast becoming mainstream low-carbon solutions. According to IEA:
- Renewable energy represented more than half of new global capacity additions in 2016, and solar PV and onshore wind are forecast to grow by 2.6 times and 1.7 times, respectively, between 2016-2020.
- More than 760,000 EVs were sold in 2016, pushing the global total to 2 million EVs on the road.
- Installed energy storage capacity reached 930 megawatts (MW) in 2016, with year-on-year growth of more than 60% for non-pumped hydro storage.
As renewables and energy storage technologies advance, they become favored regardless of political preference . Today, building new wind farms or solar arrays from scratch are cheaper in some regions than simply paying the operating costs of an existing coal-fired plant—no subsidy or standard required. And America’s red states are installing wind energy at a far greater pace than blue states.
These trends are evident across the world as well, as most of the world’s nations are prioritizing clean energy in their economic futures. India aims to raise $1 trillion for solar investments, China has already committed $360 billion to renewable energy, and the European Investment Bank has pledged €20 billion annually to clean energy. It’s small wonder, then, that China and the European Union just issued a 10-page manifesto reiterating clean energy as “a main pillar of their bilateral partnership.” And where national governments fail to lead, local government and corporations can pick up the slack: After President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement last Thursday, more than 1,400 U.S. cities, states, and businesses vowed to still meet the Agreement’s decarbonization targets.
Still, important technologies are not getting the price reductions required, or the scale of installations needed.
Stop Subsidizing Coal To Speed Up Decarbonization
The IEA reports 8 of 26 technologies—starting with the retirement coal-fired power—are significantly off-track and require renewed policy focus to meet 2° targets. IEA cites coal’s 40% share of global power generation, and the need to reduce coal-based emissions by around 3% annually until 2025 for a sustainable energy future.
When coal goes up against renewables on cost, it loses. U.S. utilities keep announcing coal retirements due to economics, and U. S. coal demand is at a 30-year low. India won’t need new coal generation for at least a decade, and China canceled 103 coal plants earlier this year. “Coal is over,” a longtime Chinese government official recently remarked in the New York Times.